59% — Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers Kalshi 59% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:05 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates a 53% chance that Jonathan Majors will appear as Kang in the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday film. The assessment reflects uncertainty following Majors' legal challenges in 2023-2024, which created doubt about his continued involvement in major MCU projects despite no official studio announcement either way. The main factors driving this mid-range probability are the lack of formal confirmation from Marvel Studios and the actor's recent legal resolutions, balanced against the character's central role in the multiverse storyline and Majors' continued industry presence. Official casting announcements from Marvel or production updates during filming would provide the clearest resolution point, likely occurring sometime before the film's anticipated 2026-2027 release window. Key factors: - Marvel Studios has made no public statement confirming or denying Majors' involvement as Kang since his 2023 legal case resolution - Majors has not been publicly associated with major MCU projects announced after his legal issues, creating ambiguity about his status - Kang is essential to the multiverse narrative arc established in prior MCU films, creating narrative pressure to include or explicitly recast the character - The comparison contracts show Tobey Maguire (70¢) rated higher than Majors (53¢) for Avengers appearances, suggesting market participants view established returning actors as more certain - Production and casting details have remained unusually sparse relative to typical Marvel promotional timelines Contracts: - Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? — 44¢ Kalshi $543 (weight 19%) - Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tom Holland as Spider-Man? — 48¢ Kalshi $434 (weight 15%) - Will Tobey Maguire perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? — 71¢ Kalshi $433 (weight 15%) - Will Kathryn Newton perform as Cassie Lang in Avengers: Doomsday?: Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang? — 94¢ Kalshi $394 (weight 14%) - Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? — 50¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 9%) - Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday?: Halle Berry as Storm? — 45¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 8%) - Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jonathan Majors as Kang? — 9¢ Kalshi $178 (weight 6%) - Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? — 87¢ Kalshi $73 (weight 3%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.662Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roleinproductiondoomsday Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jonathan%20Majors%20perform%20as%20Kang%20in%20Avengers Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev