55% — Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers
Kalshi 55% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates a 53% chance that Jonathan Majors will appear as Kang in the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday film. The assessment reflects uncertainty following Majors' legal challenges in 2023-2024, which created doubt about his continued involvement in major MCU projects despite no official studio announcement either way. The main factors driving this mid-range probability are the lack of formal confirmation from Marvel Studios and the actor's recent legal resolutions, balanced against the character's central role in the multiverse storyline and Majors' continued industry presence. Official casting announcements from Marvel or production updates during filming would provide the clearest resolution point, likely occurring sometime before the film's anticipated 2026-2027 release window.

Key factors:
- Marvel Studios has made no public statement confirming or denying Majors' involvement as Kang since his 2023 legal case resolution
- Majors has not been publicly associated with major MCU projects announced after his legal issues, creating ambiguity about his status
- Kang is essential to the multiverse narrative arc established in prior MCU films, creating narrative pressure to include or explicitly recast the character
- The comparison contracts show Tobey Maguire (70¢) rated higher than Majors (53¢) for Avengers appearances, suggesting market participants view established returning actors as more certain
- Production and casting details have remained unusually sparse relative to typical Marvel promotional timelines

Contracts:
- Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? — 72¢ Kalshi $984 (weight 45%)
- Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tom Holland as Spider-Man? — 43¢ Kalshi $865 (weight 39%)
- Will Tobey Maguire perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday?: Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? — 71¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 5%)
- Will Evangeline Lilly perform as the Wasp in Avengers: Doomsday?: Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? — 23¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 3%)
- Will Don Cheadle perform as James Rhodes / War Machine in Avengers: Doomsday?: Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? — 44¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 2%)
- Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday?: Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? — 47¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 2%)
- Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday?: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? — 40¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 1%)
- Will Hailee Steinfeld perform as Kate Bishop in Avengers: Doomsday?: Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? — 63¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/roleinproductiondoomsday
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jonathan%20Majors%20perform%20as%20Kang%20in%20Avengers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev