32% — Will Rolex prices hit __ by April 30?: ↑ $12,250
Polymarket 32% · 6 contracts · $95K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:19 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $120 — 12¢ Polymarket $53K (weight 56%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 41¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 15%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 31¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 14%)
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 83¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 11%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000 — 21¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 3%)
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: ↑ $12,000 — 5¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.946Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rolex-prices-hit-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rolex%20prices%20hit%20__%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%20%E2%86%91%20%2412%2C250
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev