48% — Romania SuperLiga
Leader: Winner: Rapid București at 48% · Polymarket 48% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market estimates that Dinamo will win the 2026 Romania SuperLiga championship, currently priced at 48% on Polymarket. The market shows a tightly clustered outcome, with four teams (Dinamo, FCSB, Botoșani, and Oțelul Galați) each valued between 42-48%, indicating uncertainty about who will secure the title. Trading volume remains modest at $100 per contract over 24 hours, suggesting limited liquidity and potential for price shifts as the season progresses. The championship outcome depends on regular-season performance, head-to-head results, and playoff mechanics if applicable. Resolution will occur at the end of the 2025-26 SuperLiga season, with the title awarded to the team with the best final record or playoff winner depending on league rules.

Key factors:
- Dinamo and the runner-up are identically priced at 48%, indicating near-parity in perceived strength rather than a clear favorite
- Four different teams occupy the 42-48% probability range, suggesting the market views multiple outcomes as similarly likely
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($100 per contract) implies limited market depth and potential for repricing based on injury news, transfers, or match results
- Current season standings and recent form in the SuperLiga would directly impact whether these probabilities shift toward or away from the current leader
- The championship resolution depends on final league table or playoff structure, with timing typically occurring in late May or June depending on the season schedule

Contracts:
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Rapid București — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Dinamo — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: CFR Cluj — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Universitatea Craiova — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Universitatea Cluj — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Argeș Pitești — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Petrolul — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- Romania SuperLiga: Winner: Farul Constanța — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/romania-superliga
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Romania%20SuperLiga
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev