68% — In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score Kalshi 68% · 16 contracts · $54K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-27 05:35:26 UTC Why this matters: The 62% probability reflects market expectations that an upcoming film titled 'In the Grey' will receive a Rotten Tomatoes score in a specified range, likely between 75-77 points based on the contract structure. The prediction is primarily driven by sentiment around the film's production quality, cast, and director relative to comparable releases in its genre. Market participants are pricing in moderate confidence rather than high certainty, suggesting mixed signals about the film's critical reception. The main catalyst will be the film's release and subsequent critic reviews, which typically accumulate within the first week and stabilize the Rotten Tomatoes score. Trading volume patterns show the broader 75+ threshold has much higher conviction (97¢) compared to the tighter 77+ range (41¢), indicating disagreement about whether the film will reach higher critical acclaim. Resolution depends entirely on how professional critics rate the finished film upon theatrical or platform release. Key factors: - The distribution of contract prices shows declining conviction at higher score thresholds, with 75+ at 97¢ versus 77+ at 41¢, indicating uncertainty about whether the film exceeds modest critical expectations - Recent comparable films in the same genre or from the same studio provide baseline data for typical critical reception patterns and score ranges - Production details such as director track record, cast pedigree, and reported budget level historically correlate with critical reception outcomes - The film's scheduled release date and critic screening policies will determine the speed and completeness of Rotten Tomatoes score accumulation - Trading volume concentration in 2-3 specific contracts suggests some contracts lack sufficient market depth to reflect genuine probability estimates Contracts: - Jackass: Best and Last Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 85 — 54¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 25%) - Jackass: Best and Last Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90 — 3¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 21%) - The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90 — 89¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 16%) - Jackass: Best and Last Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 80 — 94¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 10%) - Jackass: Best and Last Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 75 — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 95 — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 80 — 81¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%) - Minions & Monsters Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 70 — 84¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-27T05:20:50.591Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=In%20the%20Grey%20Rotten%20Tomatoes%20score Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev