97% — Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.91 by Dec 31 Leader: Above $0.41 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 13 contracts · $135 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:05 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 97% probability that the RTX 5090's cost per compute hour will exceed $0.56 by year-end 2026, with sharply declining odds for higher price thresholds. The high baseline probability reflects confidence that the GPU will remain expensive relative to competing hardware, while steeper price cuts or alternative acceleration technologies would push costs downward. Market participants assign only 24% odds to exceeding $1.46 per hour—suggesting most expect moderate price declines over seven months rather than premium pricing. The actual resolution depends on RTX 5090 availability, manufacturing volume, competing GPU launches (particularly from AMD and Intel), and cloud provider pricing strategies. Major catalyst: NVIDIA's official launch specifications and vendor pricing announcements, typically accompanying or immediately following hardware release, will establish baseline costs that inform market repricing. Key factors: - NVIDIA RTX 5090 launch timing and initial MSRP versus previous-generation flagship pricing - Availability and competitive positioning of alternative accelerators (AMD MI300X successors, Intel Gaudi updates) through H2 2026 - Cloud provider adoption rates and per-hour pricing tiers set by major vendors (AWS, Azure, GCP) - Manufacturing yield and production ramp affecting supply constraints and secondary-market premiums - Actual measured compute efficiency (FLOPs per watt, memory bandwidth utilization) versus marketing claims Contracts: - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.41 by Dec 31?: Above $0.41 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.56 by Dec 31?: Above $0.56 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.71 by Dec 31?: Above $0.71 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.86 by Dec 31?: Above $0.86 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.01 by Dec 31?: Above $1.01 — 30¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 30%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.16 by Dec 31?: Above $1.16 — 29¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 43%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.31 by Dec 31?: Above $1.31 — 29¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.46 by Dec 31?: Above $1.46 — 24¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 13%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.499Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rtx5090max Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20RTX%205090%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%241.91%20by%20Dec%2031 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev