76% — Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.25 in May 2027
Leader: Above $0.50 at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 18 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:33:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 86% probability that NVIDIA's RTX 5090 will have a monthly average compute price above $1.25 in May 2027. The current high probability reflects expectations of sustained demand and pricing stability roughly 11 months from now. Key drivers include near-term supply constraints through late 2026—evidenced by much lower probabilities for hitting $1.00 in July and August—followed by potential normalization as supply catches up. The contract chain shows traders pricing in initial scarcity premiums that erode over time, with confidence declining sharply for higher price thresholds in 2027. Resolution will depend on actual RTX 5090 availability, competing GPU supply, and enterprise compute demand intensity during that period.

Key factors:
- The near-term December 2026 contract trades at 69¢ (69% probability of >$0.50), suggesting traders expect rapid price appreciation from current levels to May 2027
- Probability drops significantly for higher thresholds ($1.50+ by January 2027 trades at only 8¢), indicating skepticism about sustained premium pricing beyond initial launch scarcity
- The 86% probability for $1.25 in May sits between near-term scarcity premiums and longer-term price normalization, placing it at an inflection point where supply catches up but demand remains elevated
- Summer 2026 contracts show very low probabilities for $1.00+ (6-9¢), implying expected inventory constraints have already been priced in through late 2026
- The multi-month spread of outcomes suggests pricing follows a supply-normalization curve rather than a spike-and-crash pattern

Contracts:
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in August 2026?: Above $0.50 — 76¢ Kalshi $635 (weight 6%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in September 2026?: Above $0.50 — 74¢ Kalshi $300 (weight 3%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in March 2027?: Above $0.50 — 68¢ Kalshi $742 (weight 7%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in April 2027?: Above $0.50 — 66¢ Kalshi $249 (weight 2%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in October 2026?: Above $0.75 — 44¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in August 2026?: Above $0.75 — 32¢ Kalshi $508 (weight 5%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in March 2027?: Above $1.50 — 12¢ Kalshi $338 (weight 3%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50 — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:18.810Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rtx5090ms
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20monthly%20average%20compute%20price%20of%20NVIDIA's%20RTX%205090%20be%20above%20%241.25%20in%20May%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev