71% — Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26 Leader: Above $0.50 at 71% · Kalshi 71% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:11:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures whether NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU will cost less than $0.50 per hour to rent for compute tasks on June 26 at 4 PM ET. The 3% probability reflects skepticism that pricing will be this low. Current RTX 5090 pricing in the market appears substantially higher than this threshold, which would require either significant price declines, increased supply reducing rental costs, or a shift in how compute-per-hour is calculated or measured. The main drivers moving this probability would be actual rental rate data from major cloud providers closer to the resolution date and any significant changes in GPU supply or demand dynamics. The June 26 resolution date itself serves as the critical event—real-time pricing data on that date will determine the outcome, making pre-resolution speculation dependent on tracking near-term pricing trends from services like Lambda Labs, Vast.ai, or major cloud platforms. Key factors: - Current RTX 5090 rental rates from established compute platforms are materially above $0.50/hour, creating a structural headwind for the 'above $0.50' outcome - Supply volume and competitive pricing pressure in the weeks before June 26 could compress rates downward, though dramatic declines of 50%+ would be required - The specific measurement methodology and source for the 4 PM ET June 26 price snapshot is critical—ambiguity here could introduce interpretation risk - Market liquidity on this contract remains very low ($0 24h volume on Kalshi), suggesting limited conviction or information among traders - A seven-week window allows for sufficient time to observe actual pricing trends, but near-term market data will be the primary driver of probability movement Contracts: - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $0.50 — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $0.50 — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $0.50 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $0.50 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $0.50 — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $1.50 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $0.75 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.793Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/rtx5090ws Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NVIDIA%20RTX%205090%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%240.5%20at%204%20PM%20ET%20on%20Jun%2026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev