37% — Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...
Leader: June 30 at 37% · Polymarket 37% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Ruben Rocha will be removed from the governorship of Sinaloa by June 30, 2026. The 38% price on the June 30 contract suggests traders view an exit within the next month as plausible but not the base case. Rocha, who took office in October 2024, faces persistent security challenges in the state, including ongoing cartel violence and territorial disputes. The probability is driven primarily by two factors: the severity of violence in Sinaloa and political pressure from the Mexican federal government regarding state-level governance. Most of the trading volume concentrates on the June 30 deadline rather than the May 31 option (currently 10%), indicating traders expect resolution timelines measured in weeks rather than days. Any major escalation of violence, federal intervention, or formal removal proceedings would likely shift the probability significantly. The contract structure isolates uncertainty to a defined timeframe, allowing traders to express views on near-term political stability in the state.

Key factors:
- Trading volume favors June 30 over May 31 (9x higher volume), suggesting traders expect removal would occur mid-to-late June if at all rather than immediately
- Rocha assumed office in October 2024 after winning election; early removal would represent extraordinary political intervention, which markets price as unlikely though possible
- Sinaloa has experienced elevated cartel violence and organized crime activity; specific incidents or federal security assessments could trigger removal pressure
- The May 31 contract price (10¢) shows minimal conviction in imminent removal, while June 30 at 37¢ reflects meaningful but still minority probability
- Mexican federal government precedent and legal mechanisms for governor removal during term would determine feasibility independent of circumstances

Contracts:
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?: June 30 — 37¢ Polymarket $88 (weight 4%)
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?: May 31 — 4¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 96%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.185Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Ruben%20Rocha%20out%20as%20Governor%20of%20Sinaloa%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev