3% — Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:15:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's estimate that Russian forces will seize control of Myropillia, a settlement in Ukraine, within the next two weeks by May 31, 2026. The 6% level suggests traders view capture as unlikely in this timeframe, likely reflecting the current military positions, pace of Russian advances in the region, and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The main driver of probability shifts would be changes in the rate of Russian territorial gains in eastern Ukraine or significant shifts in military resources. The single biggest catalyst will be the actual military situation on the ground as May 31 approaches, with real-time reports of Russian force movements and Ukrainian counteraction providing the clearest indication of whether capture becomes feasible.

Key factors:
- Current distance of Russian forces from Myropillia and the rate of advance in recent weeks
- Ukrainian defensive positions and reported troop concentrations around the settlement
- Supply line status and availability of Russian assault forces allocated to this specific objective
- Historical pace of Russian territorial gains in this region over comparable two-week periods
- Any announced Ukrainian reinforcements or strategic withdrawals affecting the contested area

Contracts:
- Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?: May 31 — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:14.697Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/russia-capture-myropillia-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Russia%20capture%20Myropillia%20by%20May%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev