9% — Russia coup attempt in 2026
Polymarket 9% · 1 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 16:29:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market assessment of the likelihood that a coup attempt occurs in Russia during 2026. At 9%, the market suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects the historical rarity of successful coups in nuclear-armed states and Russia's established power structures, though markets also price in risks from potential military instability, factional tensions within the security apparatus, or cascading effects from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Key drivers of movement would include major shifts in domestic political stability, significant military setbacks or domestic crises that destabilize institutional control, or unexpected developments within Russia's security and defense establishment. Resolution will depend on how external observers and event participants define and document a coup attempt, with key developments likely to emerge throughout 2026 as the year unfolds.

Key factors:
- Russia maintains extensive security apparatus and centralized state control mechanisms that have proven resilient against internal political challenges historically
- Ongoing military commitments and potential domestic resource constraints could create pressure points within the Russian military and security establishment
- Historical precedent suggests coup attempts in nuclear-armed states face exceptionally high barriers due to institutional safeguards and mutual deterrence among power centers
- Market liquidity and contract volume ($12,749 in 24h trading) indicate limited trader participation, potentially affecting probability precision
- Definitional clarity on what constitutes a 'coup attempt' will be critical for contract resolution, including threshold for organization level and intent

Contracts:
- Russia coup attempt in 2026? — 9¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/russia-coup-attempt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Russia%20coup%20attempt%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev