10% — Will Russia enter Stinky by...
Polymarket 10% · 1 contracts · $31 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 20:12:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Russian forces will capture Stinky, a settlement in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, by a specific deadline. The 10% probability reflects skepticism about near-term Russian territorial gains in this sector, given the current pace of military operations and the distance Russian forces maintain from the settlement. The main factors driving this low probability are the relatively static front lines in this area and the logistical challenges of offensive operations. The deadline itself—whether set weeks or months ahead—determines feasibility; earlier deadlines naturally attract lower probabilities than later ones. Resolution depends entirely on verified reports of Russian military control of the settlement, making any major shift in local combat operations the critical trigger for probability movement.

Key factors:
- Current distance between Russian-held territory and Stinky, and documented front-line positions as of the resolution date
- Pace of Russian territorial advances in the Zaporizhzhia sector over the preceding 6-12 months
- Ukrainian defensive capabilities and force positioning in the Stinky area
- Logistics and supply line sustainability for Russian offensive operations in this theater
- Specific deadline embedded in the contract, which directly constrains the timeframe for capture

Contracts:
- Will Russia enter Stinky by...?: May 31 — 10¢ Polymarket $31 (weight 100%)

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/russia-enter-stinky
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Russia%20enter%20Stinky%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev