89% — Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place
Leader: 2nd Place: CDU at 89% · Polymarket 89% · 2 contracts · $50 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific party will finish in second place in the upcoming Sachsen-Anhalt state parliamentary elections in Germany. At 6%, the market is pricing this as a relatively unlikely outcome, suggesting one or two parties are heavily favored over others for the runner-up position. The current level reflects available polling data and recent political trends in this eastern German state. The main factors influencing this probability are recent polling trends showing which parties have consolidated support, the degree of uncertainty in voter turnout and potential shifts between the first and second-place finishers, and strategic voting patterns that could emerge before election day. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty when it occurs, providing definitive results for final vote shares and rankings among all competing parties.

Key factors:
- Recent polling aggregates showing which parties are polling in first and second place positions in Sachsen-Anhalt
- Historical volatility in eastern German state elections and the degree of polling error in predicting second-place finishes
- Potential for voter consolidation or fragmentation among smaller parties that could shift final rankings
- Turnout expectations and demographic shifts that could alter the balance between competing parties
- Date and timing of the election, as this determines when the market resolves based on official results

Contracts:
- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place: CDU — 89¢ Polymarket $50 (weight 100%)
- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place: AfD — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sachsenanhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Sachsen-Anhalt%20Parliamentary%20Elections%3A%202nd%20Place
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev