81% — Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4% Leader: Above 0.0% at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-29 22:36:49 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an 84% chance that South Africa's economy contracted less than it might have, or grew slightly, in Q1 2026 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The probability drops sharply as the growth threshold rises: only 46% of traders expect growth above 0.4%, and just 14% expect it above 0.8%. South Africa's economic performance depends heavily on electricity supply stability, commodity prices, and manufacturing activity. The official GDP data release from Statistics South Africa—typically published 5–7 weeks after quarter-end—will provide the definitive reading and resolve all contracts. Until then, recent load-shedding trends, electricity generation capacity additions, and global commodity demand will shape expectations. Key factors: - South Africa's actual Q1 2026 QoQ GDP figure will be released by Statistics South Africa, likely in late June or early July 2026, providing the only authoritative resolution - Electricity load-shedding severity and generation capacity in Q1 2026 directly constrain manufacturing and services output, and any sustained grid improvements or deterioration would shift growth expectations - Global commodity prices (especially platinum and iron ore) and rand exchange rates influence export revenues and import costs, affecting aggregate demand - Manufacturing PMI, business confidence indices, and employment data released during April–May 2026 serve as advance indicators that traders use to adjust contract prices - The steepness of the probability decline across thresholds (84% → 46% → 14%) indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will be weak-positive, flat, or negative Contracts: - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 81¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 100%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6% — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8% — 14¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0% — 11¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-29T22:20:07.329Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sagdpqoq Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20South%20Africa%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20QoQ%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%200.4%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev