17% — Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship
Kalshi 17% · 5 contracts · $230 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:58:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Artemis SailGP Team will not win the 2026 SailGP Championship, with odds at 22 cents suggesting roughly one-in-five chances. The current market positions Bonds Flying Roos as the favorite at 47 cents, with Los Gallos and other teams also considered competitive. The relatively low probability for Artemis likely reflects either recent performance data, roster changes, or perceived technical disadvantages compared to leading competitors. Resolution of this market depends on the completion of the full 2026 SailGP season and final championship standings. Key uncertainties include team performance during preliminary races, any mid-season roster adjustments, and how closely Artemis can match the pace of higher-probability contenders through the season's duration.

Key factors:
- Artemis trades at 22 cents versus Bonds Flying Roos at 47 cents, indicating market consensus views Artemis as approximately 2.1x less likely to win than the current favorite
- Trading volume across all four Artemis-related contracts shows $0 in 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
- Artemis's probability (22%) matches Los Gallos (23%) despite different historical performance records, indicating market assessment may reflect team composition or technical capability rather than tradition
- Emirates GBR trades at only 8 cents despite being an established program, suggesting market focus narrows to 3-4 primary contenders for the 2026 championship
- The 2026 SailGP season schedule and completion date will determine when this market resolves, with championship finals likely determining final outcomes

Contracts:
- Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: United States SailGP Team — 3¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 100%)
- Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Artemis SailGP Team — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Bonds Flying Roos — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Emirates GBR — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Los Gallos win the 2026 SailGP Championship?: Los Gallos — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:50.035Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sailgp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Artemis%20SailGP%20Team%20win%20the%202026%20SailGP%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev