8% — Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix
Kalshi 8% · 11 contracts · $100 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This 12% probability represents the current market assessment of Artemis SailGP Team's chances of winning the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix. The low probability suggests that competing teams, particularly Bonds Flying Roos (23%) and Emirates GBR (16%), are viewed as stronger contenders. Artemis's relatively low odds reflect either historical performance gaps, roster composition, or recent season results compared to rivals. The main catalyst for this probability will be the actual race event in Bermuda, where live performance data and conditions will determine the outcome. Factors that could shift expectations include team roster announcements, performance in preliminary races leading up to Bermuda, crew changes, boat modifications, and weather conditions during the event. Current trading volume of zero across all contracts suggests limited market activity, indicating this is primarily a reference probability rather than an actively arbitraged position.

Key factors:
- Artemis's current 12% odds trail all other named top contenders, with Bonds Flying Roos at 23% being the market favorite
- Team composition, recent season standings, and historical performance at Bermuda courses likely inform the probability differential
- Race conditions in Bermuda, including wind patterns and water state on event day, will materially affect all teams' performance
- Preliminary race results or team announcements between now and the event could shift market expectations
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts indicates limited current market liquidity and suggests this may reflect structural market odds rather than active price discovery

Contracts:
- Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Artemis SailGP Team — 10¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 100%)
- Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 Canada Sail Grand Prix?: Bonds Flying Roos — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Bonds Flying Roos — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Emirates GBR — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: France SailGP Team — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Germany SailGP Team win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Germany SailGP Team — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Los Gallos win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: Los Gallos — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will NorthStar Canada win the 2026 New York Sail Grand Prix?: NorthStar Canada — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sailgprace
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Artemis%20SailGP%20Team%20win%20the%202026%20Bermuda%20Sail%20Grand%20Prix
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev