24% — San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers
Kalshi 24% · 3 contracts · $182 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:15:20 UTC

Why this matters:
This 17% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego FC will defeat Portland Timbers in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests bettors favor Portland or expect a draw. The assessment likely reflects San Diego's recent performance record, current team composition, and head-to-head dynamics against Portland. Key factors include home-field advantage, injury status of key players, recent form in the league standings, and Portland's defensive capabilities. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, providing immediate resolution. Market participants are weighting historical win rates and current season statistics heavily, given the limited volume on these contracts suggests relatively few traders are positioned on this outcome. The probability could shift significantly if major roster changes or injury updates occur before kickoff.

Key factors:
- San Diego's current win-loss record and goals-for/against differential compared to Portland's defensive statistics this season
- Home or away designation for the match, as MLS teams typically show measurable performance variance based on venue
- Injury or suspension status of starting players for either team, particularly offensive playmakers or defensive anchors
- Head-to-head historical performance between San Diego FC and Portland Timbers in recent matchups
- Current league table position and playoff qualification trajectory for both teams as of the match date

Contracts:
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 39¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 100%)
- Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.614Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/san-diego-fc-vs-portland-timbers
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=San%20Diego%20FC%20vs.%20Portland%20Timbers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev