36% — San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC
Leader: 85+ wins at 36% · Kalshi 36% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 06:35:14 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 18% probability reflects market expectations that the San Diego Padres will win the 2026 National League West division title. The forecast is driven primarily by the Padres' roster composition, payroll constraints, and historical division competitiveness, with the Bay FC (Giants/Athletics region) emerging as a potential challenger. The main uncertainty stems from spring performance metrics and early-season record through May-June, which typically correlates with full-season outcomes. The largest catalyst will be the Padres' win-loss record by the All-Star break in early July; a record above .500 would substantially increase championship probability, while significant injuries to core players or a sub-.500 start would pressure the estimate downward. Division rival performance—particularly the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies—also meaningfully affects relative odds.

Key factors:
- Padres' current win-loss record and run differential compared to other NL West teams as of late May 2026
- Injury status of San Diego's key position players and pitchers, especially any players on injured list longer than 2-3 weeks
- Historical franchise payroll ranking within the division and player acquisitions made during 2025-2026 offseason
- Bay FC's actual roster construction and winning percentage through early June 2026
- Remaining strength-of-schedule for San Diego versus divisional rivals through the remainder of the season

Contracts:
- Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 36¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 3%)
- Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 85%)
- Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner: San Diego — 3¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T06:20:48.973Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC%20vs.%20Bay%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev