19% — San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC
Leader: San Jose at 19% · Kalshi 19% · 2 contracts · $585 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:22:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 7% probability reflects market expectations that San Jose Earthquakes will win the 2026 MLS Cup. The low figure reflects San Jose's recent competitive standing within MLS; the team would need sustained regular-season performance and playoff success to shift these odds materially upward. The most relevant catalyst is the 2026 MLS season itself, which determines playoff qualification and seeding. Kalshi's 10% estimate runs 6 percentage points higher than Polymarket's 4%, suggesting disagreement on San Jose's true chances. Both venues show minimal recent trading volume on these contracts, indicating limited market conviction behind the current prices and relatively shallow liquidity.

Key factors:
- San Jose Earthquakes' 2026 regular-season win-loss record and final conference standing will directly determine playoff position and tournament path
- The cross-venue 6-percentage-point gap (Kalshi 10% vs Polymarket 4%) indicates material disagreement on probability, suggesting one market may be mispriced or reflecting different trader bases
- Trading volume is near-zero on all listed contracts over the past 24 hours, indicating low market attention and the possibility that prices reflect few actual trades rather than active consensus
- San Jose's roster composition and injury status through the 2026 season will affect their ability to compete against stronger MLS franchises in a knockout tournament format
- MLS Cup is a single-elimination tournament, meaning even moderately competitive teams face steep odds; baseline probability for a mid-tier team in a 28-team league is substantially below 7%

Contracts:
- Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose — 19¢ Kalshi $585 (weight 100%)
- Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?: San Jose — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.570Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/san-jose-earthquakes-vs-austin-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=San%20Jose%20Earthquakes%20vs.%20Austin%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev