10% — Will Satoshi Nakamoto be identified?
Kalshi 10% · 3 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:06 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027 — 18¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 91%)
- Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.774Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/satoshi-identity
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20be%20identified%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev