23% — Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin?
Kalshi 10% · Polymarket 36% · 6 contracts · $23K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:04 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 26pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Before January 2027 — 18¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 79%)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — 8¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 8%)
- Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before October 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? — 6¢ Polymarket $978 (weight 4%)
- Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto — 93¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.263Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/satoshi-move-bitcoin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Satoshi%20move%20any%20Bitcoin%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev