44% — Will Eva von Angern win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election
Kalshi 44% · 2 contracts · $457 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Eva von Angern becomes the next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt following the state election scheduled for 2026. At 21%, von Angern ranks third among tracked candidates, behind Ulrich Siegmund (35%) and Sven Schulze (27%). Her positioning reflects the fragmented nature of Saxony-Anhalt politics, where coalition-building after election results will determine the final outcome. The probability could shift based on two main factors: changes in polling data as the election approaches, and post-election negotiations between parties to form a governing coalition. The election itself, when held in 2026, will be the primary resolution event that clarifies whether von Angern can secure the position through either direct electoral strength or as a coalition compromise candidate.

Key factors:
- Von Angern's current contract price of 14¢ reflects lower market confidence compared to Siegmund (35¢) and Schulze (27¢), suggesting perceived structural disadvantages in coalition or polling dynamics
- Saxony-Anhalt elections depend heavily on coalition mathematics after voting; von Angern's probability depends partly on which parties gain seats and whether her party would be included in winning coalitions
- Polling trends and party performance in upcoming months will directly influence probability adjustments, as markets incorporate new survey data closer to the election date
- The three leading candidates collectively represent 73% probability, indicating substantial uncertainty about which candidate will ultimately lead the government
- Low trading volume on von Angern's contract ($0 in 24h volume at time of observation) suggests limited market activity and potential for probability shifts as interest increases

Contracts:
- Will Ulrich Siegmund win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election?: Ulrich Siegmund — 44¢ Kalshi $457 (weight 100%)
- Will Sven Schulze win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election?: Sven Schulze — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:50.126Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/saxanhmp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Eva%20von%20Angern%20win%20the%20Saxony-Anhalt%20Minister-President%20election%20following%20the%202026%20state%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev