5% — Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship Kalshi 5% · 14 contracts · $149K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 20:25:22 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that Green Bay has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the 2027 NFL championship. The 5% assessment reflects the Packers' current roster construction and recent performance relative to other NFL teams. Key factors pushing this probability would include quarterback durability and performance, the strength of the offensive line, and defensive depth heading into the 2026 season. The probability could shift substantially based on offseason moves, injuries during training camp, and early-season results. The 2026 NFL season (beginning September 2026) will provide concrete data on team performance and health, serving as the primary driver of probability updates. The Super Bowl LXI in early February 2027 represents the final resolution event for this contract. Key factors: - Green Bay's quarterback health and performance through the 2026 regular season will directly impact playoff qualification odds - Offensive line strength and run-game effectiveness determine whether the team can execute consistently in high-leverage games - Defensive pass-rush capability and secondary coverage consistency are critical metrics in January playoff conditions - Divisional competition within the NFC North and playoff seeding implications affect championship probability independent of absolute team quality - Early 2026 offseason acquisitions and draft picks will establish the roster composition that determines Super Bowl LVII viability Contracts: - Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Dallas — 3¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 21%) - Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Detroit — 4¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 16%) - Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Seattle — 7¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 12%) - Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles R — 16¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 9%) - Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Baltimore — 5¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 9%) - Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Chicago — 3¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 8%) - Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Denver — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 5%) - Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: San Francisco — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 5%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:49.288Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Bay%20win%20the%202027%20Pro%20Football%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev