5% — Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Kalshi 5% · 14 contracts · $575K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:23:33 UTC

Why this matters:
A 5% probability for Green Bay winning the 2027 NFL championship reflects a less than 1-in-20 chance based on current market pricing. This estimate sits below mid-tier contenders like Baltimore (5%) but well above long-shot teams like Houston (3%) and Philadelphia (4%). The probability reflects Green Bay's recent playoff performance, roster composition, and depth at critical positions relative to stronger favorites like Los Angeles (16%). Movements in this probability would likely stem from quarterback performance metrics, offensive line health, or defensive secondary effectiveness during the 2026 regular season. The outcome will be determined following the Super Bowl LXI conclusion in early February 2027, with regular season performance over the next 5-6 months serving as the primary uncertainty driver for current pricing.

Key factors:
- Green Bay's current playoff seeding trajectory and strength-of-schedule remaining in the 2026 NFL regular season
- Quarterback performance statistics (completion percentage, interception rate, QBR) relative to other AFC/NFC competitors
- Key injury status of top-three offensive or defensive skill position players heading into the playoffs
- Historical playoff win-rate patterns for teams with similar pre-playoff winning percentages and conference positioning
- Volume and price movement on competing Super Bowl contenders, particularly Baltimore (5%) and Los Angeles (16%)

Contracts:
- Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Cincinnati — 4¢ Kalshi $165K (weight 29%)
- Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Denver — 4¢ Kalshi $82K (weight 14%)
- Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Dallas — 3¢ Kalshi $78K (weight 14%)
- Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Detroit — 3¢ Kalshi $56K (weight 10%)
- Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Los Angeles R — 15¢ Kalshi $44K (weight 8%)
- Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Houston — 3¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 4%)
- Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Philadelphia — 4¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 4%)
- Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Seattle — 7¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 4%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.426Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Green%20Bay%20win%20the%202027%20Pro%20Football%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev