91% — Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 7% comparable transactions growth in 2026
Leader: Above 2% at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 16 contracts · $41 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Starbucks will report comparable transaction growth exceeding 7% for the full year 2026. The 92% price on this outcome sits at the high end of the contract range, suggesting traders view above-7% growth as significantly more likely than slower growth. Two main drivers shape this view: first, Starbucks' recent operational momentum and pricing actions, which have supported comparable sales growth; second, the baseline assumption that modest mid-single-digit growth (the 2% and 3% thresholds trade in the 92% and 78% range respectively) is already well-embedded, making 7% a moderately stretched but plausible target. The key uncertainty resolves when Starbucks reports full-year 2026 fiscal results, typically announced in early 2027. Market-level consumer spending trends, coffee demand shifts, and company-specific execution on store productivity will determine the actual outcome.

Key factors:
- Comparable sales growth of 3% trades at 78¢ versus 92% for 2% growth, indicating traders assign meaningful probability to growth stalling between 2% and 7%
- Starbucks' store count contracts cluster around 41,300–41,600 locations, reflecting uncertainty on expansion pace and potential closures that could pressure unit-level productivity
- The wide spread between the 7% threshold and lower tiers suggests 7% represents an optimistic but non-consensus outcome rather than a near-certainty
- Historical Starbucks comparable sales performance and current macroeconomic conditions (consumer spending, inflation trends) will directly shape execution
- Final resolution depends on Starbucks' official 2026 fiscal year earnings report, scheduled for release in early 2027

Contracts:
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 2% comparable transactions growth in 2026?: Above 2% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41300 total global stores in 2026?: Above 41300 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41400 total global stores in 2026?: Above 41400 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 3% comparable transactions growth in 2026?: Above 3% — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41500 total global stores in 2026?: Above 41500 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 4% comparable transactions growth in 2026?: Above 4% — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41600 total global stores in 2026?: Above 41600 — 40¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 100%)
- Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 5% comparable transactions growth in 2026?: Above 5% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.643Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sbuxa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Starbucks%20Corporation%20report%20Above%207%25%20comparable%20transactions%20growth%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev