62% — Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105
Leader: Above 100 at 62% · Kalshi 62% · 13 contracts · $127 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:23:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing roughly even odds that Starbucks' August 2026 credit card spending will exceed $105 million. The probability reflects uncertainty around consumer spending patterns during late summer, when promotional activity and seasonal traffic typically influence transaction volumes. Key drivers include back-to-school spending dynamics, summer travel patterns, and competitive promotional environments from rival chains. The resolution will depend on actual reported credit card transaction data for August 2026, typically released by payment processors or Starbucks in early September. The tight clustering of contract prices around 50-51 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market sees the outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than favoring either outcome substantially.

Key factors:
- Starbucks' promotional calendar and pricing strategy for August 2026, particularly any limited-time offers or premium product launches
- Consumer discretionary spending patterns during late summer, influenced by employment levels and wage growth data through August
- Year-over-year comparison to August 2025 credit card volumes, which establishes the baseline for growth or decline assessment
- Competitive activity from other coffee chains and quick-service restaurants during the same period
- Attribution accuracy: whether reported figures isolate Starbucks-branded credit card transactions or include licensed locations and payment method variations

Contracts:
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 100 ?: Above 100 — 62¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 100%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 100.5 ?: Above 100.5 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 101 ?: Above 101 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 101.5 ?: Above 101.5 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102.5 ?: Above 102.5 — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 103.5 ?: Above 103.5 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.184Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sbuxcc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Starbucks%20Monthly%20Credit%20Card%20Spend%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20105
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev