37% — Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01
Kalshi 37% · 2 contracts · $6 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 01:30:52 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Max Diaz becomes the Democratic nominee for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 32%, Diaz is positioned as a secondary contender behind Nancy Lacore, who is trading at 78% and appears to be the frontrunner. The relatively modest probability for Diaz reflects either lower name recognition, fewer endorsements, or less funding compared to leading candidates. Key factors affecting this probability include candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party officials, polling data in the district, and voter registration trends. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the Democratic primary election itself, typically held in March during election years. Between now and then, performance in any early straw polls, organizational capacity demonstrated through field staff hiring, and media coverage of the race would likely move this probability in either direction.

Key factors:
- Nancy Lacore's 78% probability suggests she maintains significant structural advantages; any erosion of her support would directly increase Diaz's probability
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand reports filed with the FEC provide quantifiable measures of campaign viability that markets typically respond to
- Mac Deford at 23% represents a third-place candidate; consolidation of support behind one of the top two would likely shift this probability downward
- The primary election date and any scheduled debates or forums offer concrete moments where relative candidate performance becomes measurable
- Voter turnout models and demographic shifts in SC-01 between now and primary day affect which candidate's coalition has structural advantages

Contracts:
- Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?: Nancy Lacore — 67¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 100%)
- Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?: Mac Deford — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sc01d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Max%20Diaz%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20SC-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev