52% — Will Sam McCown be the Republican nominee for SC-01
Kalshi 52% · 2 contracts · $884 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 01:47:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Sam McCown will secure the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests McCown is a moderate contender but faces competition or headwinds within the Republican primary process. The key drivers of this probability are McCown's existing political infrastructure and name recognition in the district, balanced against potential opposition from other candidates with stronger conservative credentials or grassroots support. The outcome will be determined primarily by the South Carolina Republican primary voting results for SC-01, scheduled for March 2026, when voters will directly choose their nominee.

Key factors:
- McCown's vote share in any completed primary elections or early polling data within SC-01
- Number and strength of competing Republican primary candidates in the district
- Campaign funding and expenditure levels compared to other nominees in the race
- Regional endorsements from established Republican figures and party leadership in South Carolina
- Turnout patterns and voter demographics in SC-01 compared to historical primary participation rates

Contracts:
- Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican nominee for SC-01?: Jenny Costa Honeycutt — 47¢ Kalshi $612 (weight 69%)
- Will Mark Smith be the Republican nominee for SC-01?: Mark Smith — 56¢ Kalshi $272 (weight 31%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sc01r
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sam%20McCown%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20SC-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev