32% — Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 12:10:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that Noor Tarun will win the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election in Ontario in 2026. The 32% estimate suggests Tarun is considered a competitive but not favored candidate in this race. The main factors driving this probability are the strength of the incumbent party's organizational capacity, local voter demographics and turnout patterns, and the relative name recognition and campaign resources of competing candidates. The by-election result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though pre-election polling and campaign spending reports in the weeks leading up to voting day could shift market expectations. Kalshi contracts show significant divergence in implied probabilities across candidates, with another candidate currently trading at 70 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty about the final outcome.

Key factors:
- Fatima Shaban currently trades at 70¢ while Noor Tarun trades at 4¢, suggesting market participants view Shaban as the stronger candidate despite both competing in the same race
- Ahsanul Hafiz's 21¢ price indicates a three-way competitive field where no single candidate commands majority expectations
- The 0 trading volume across all three contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent market activity and potential illiquidity in pricing
- Tarun's 32% aggregated probability exceeds the individual contract price of 4¢, indicating possible data aggregation or multi-contract weighting effects
- The identity and party affiliation of candidates relative to local riding demographics and provincial political trends will directly determine vote share and election outcome

Contracts:
- Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?: Fatima Shaban — 88¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 53%)
- Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?: Noor Tarun — 3¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 44%)
- Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?: Ahsanul Hafiz — 5¢ Kalshi $587 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-04T19:21:45.676Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scarboroswby
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Noor%20Tarun%20win%20the%202026%20Scarborough%20Southwest%20provincial%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev