72% — Scotland vs. Brazil
Leader: Brazil at 72% · Polymarket 72% · 3 contracts · $40 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 72% probability reflects market expectations that Scotland will win in a matchup against Brazil. The probability suggests Brazil is viewed as a strong favorite, though the market also prices in meaningful uncertainty—Scotland retains roughly a one-in-four chance according to this assessment. Market prices across multiple venues show variance, with Brazil priced at 48¢ on one exchange and Scotland at just 14¢ on another, indicating either different contract structures or pricing inefficiency. The outcome will depend on team form, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head dynamics at the time of competition. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the winner is officially determined.

Key factors:
- Brazil's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Scotland's form going into the fixture
- Venue location and any home-field advantage factors that affect match conditions
- Player availability and injury status for both squads in the days leading up to kickoff
- Variance in probability across different prediction markets (Kalshi vs. Polymarket) suggests either contract specification differences or temporary pricing discrepancies
- Historical head-to-head record and performance trends in similar competitive environments

Contracts:
- Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil — 72¢ Polymarket $16 (weight 41%)
- Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil) — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland — 14¢ Polymarket $24 (weight 59%)

Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotland-vs-brazil
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Scotland%20vs.%20Brazil
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev