87% — Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota
Leader: Before Aug 1, 2028 at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 20 contracts · $126 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-26 04:22:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects market participants' assessment that the Supreme Court is likely to rule in favor of the Republican National Committee in their legal challenge against Mi Familia Vota, currently priced at 86% likelihood. The high probability suggests strong confidence in the RNC's position, though the runner-up outcome at 76% indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. The probability is likely influenced by the composition and recent ideological alignment of the current Supreme Court, as well as the specific legal merits and standing arguments presented in the case. Resolution depends on the Court's formal decision, which typically comes months after oral arguments. Market participants would adjust this estimate based on oral argument quality, any opinions from lower courts in related cases, or public statements from justices that signal judicial thinking on the underlying legal issues.

Key factors:
- Current Supreme Court ideological composition favors outcomes aligned with RNC positions
- Specific nature of RNC's legal claims and whether justices grant standing to hear the case
- Quality and reception of oral arguments and briefs in this particular dispute
- Precedent from related voting rights and organizational standing cases decided in recent years
- Timeline to decision unclear—resolution date is not specified, creating extended uncertainty period

Contracts:
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc in International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kenneth J. Jouppi in Jouppi v. Alaska: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Apple Inc. in Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Floyd D. Johnson in Johnson v. United States Congress: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 65¢ Kalshi $126 (weight 100%)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-26T04:20:49.493Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotuscase
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20rule%20in%20favor%20of%20Republican%20National%20Committee%20in%20Republican%20National%20Committee%20v.%20Mi%20Familia%20Vota
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev