68% — What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Leader: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals at 68% · Kalshi 68% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 12:06:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 73% probability that the Supreme Court will have six conservative and three liberal justices by the end of Trump's term, reflecting expectations about potential vacancies and retirements. This probability is driven by the ages and health statuses of current justices, particularly the liberal wing which includes older members more likely to retire or pass away during the next four years. The main downward pressure comes from the possibility that no vacancies occur, or that vacancies among conservative justices offset typical retirements. The single biggest resolution factor will be actual vacancies on the bench—either through scheduled retirements announced by justices themselves or through unexpected deaths. Any announcement of a sitting justice stepping down would immediately clarify the composition trajectory.

Key factors:
- Current ages and public health disclosures of the three liberal justices (Sotomayor 70, Kagan 66, Jackson 56) versus conservative justices, affecting retirement probability timelines
- Historical vacancy rates during presidential terms; the Trump administration 2017-2021 saw three vacancies, but future frequency is uncertain
- Whether any sitting justices announce retirements or step down during Trump's 2025-2029 term, which would be the primary catalyst for composition changes
- Confirmation dynamics and Senate composition if vacancies do occur, affecting whether nominees are successfully seated
- Current 6-3 conservative majority baseline and whether attrition among conservative justices could offset changes in the liberal wing

Contracts:
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.840Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotuspower-29
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20look%20like%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Trump's%20term
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev