70% — What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term
Leader: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals at 70% · Kalshi 70% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 13:10:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents traders' assessment that the Supreme Court will have 6 conservative justices and 3 liberal justices when Trump's presidency ends in January 2029. The 72% probability reflects expectations about potential vacancies and confirmation outcomes during his term. Several factors drive this probability: current vacancy predictions on the conservative and liberal wings, confirmation dynamics in the Senate, and the ages and health status of sitting justices. The primary catalyst for resolution will be actual vacancies occurring during Trump's term—whenever a sitting justice retires or passes away. Secondary catalysts include Senate composition changes after the 2026 midterms, which could affect confirmation likelihood. The runner-up outcome at 11% suggests significant uncertainty remains about whether Trump will have the opportunity to make any appointments at all, or whether circumstances could lead to different court compositions than the base case predicts.

Key factors:
- Current age and publicly disclosed health status of all nine sitting justices, particularly conservative justices Alito (75), Thomas (77), and liberal justices Sotomayor (72) and Kagan (65)
- Senate composition and confirmation capacity—whether Republicans maintain sufficient votes to confirm Trump appointees through 2029
- Trump administration appointment strategy and whether nominated candidates pass Senate scrutiny
- Actual vacancy timing—whether any justice retires, passes away, or recuses themselves before Trump's term ends
- Historical precedent for vacancies during four-year presidential terms and typical retirement patterns among aging justices

Contracts:
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals — 70¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 92%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals — 12¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?: Not nine justices — 7¢ Kalshi $181 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T12:20:19.388Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotuspower-29
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20look%20like%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Trump's%20term
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev