14% — Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Kalshi 14% · 9 contracts · $188 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 22:08:20 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a roughly one-in-three chance that Chief Justice John Roberts will resign from the Supreme Court during Donald Trump's current presidency, which runs through January 2029. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether health concerns, institutional pressures, or other personal factors might prompt his departure. The main drivers are Roberts' age (currently 69) and health trajectory, along with broader political dynamics that could influence his decision calculus. A key catalyst would be any public announcement regarding his health status or retirement plans, which would immediately resolve much of the current uncertainty. The contract data shown primarily tracks Trump-related events rather than Roberts-specific developments, suggesting limited direct market activity specifically on his resignation decision.

Key factors:
- Roberts' current age and publicly disclosed health status would be direct indicators of resignation likelihood
- Any announcement from the Supreme Court or Roberts' chambers regarding retirement plans would immediately clarify the question
- Historical Supreme Court retirement patterns show few justices serve past their mid-80s, making timeline and health trajectory material factors
- Trump administration policies affecting the Court's jurisdiction or legitimacy could influence Roberts' calculations about staying versus leaving
- Media reporting on Roberts' behind-the-scenes views on Court dynamics or institutional concerns would provide evidence of his decision-making

Contracts:
- Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?: Samuel Alito — 60¢ Kalshi $177 (weight 94%)
- Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?: Sonia Sotomayor — 9¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?: Clarence Thomas — 33¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term?: Amy Coney Barrett — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term?: Brett Kavanaugh — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term?: Elena Kagan — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?: John Roberts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?: Ketanji Brown Jackson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T21:20:51.043Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotusresign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20John%20Roberts%20resign%20during%20Trump's%20term
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev