31% — Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term
Kalshi 31% · 4 contracts · $406 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:48 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a roughly one-in-three chance that Chief Justice John Roberts will resign from the Supreme Court during Donald Trump's current presidency, which runs through January 2029. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether health concerns, institutional pressures, or other personal factors might prompt his departure. The main drivers are Roberts' age (currently 69) and health trajectory, along with broader political dynamics that could influence his decision calculus. A key catalyst would be any public announcement regarding his health status or retirement plans, which would immediately resolve much of the current uncertainty. The contract data shown primarily tracks Trump-related events rather than Roberts-specific developments, suggesting limited direct market activity specifically on his resignation decision.

Key factors:
- Roberts' current age and publicly disclosed health status would be direct indicators of resignation likelihood
- Any announcement from the Supreme Court or Roberts' chambers regarding retirement plans would immediately clarify the question
- Historical Supreme Court retirement patterns show few justices serve past their mid-80s, making timeline and health trajectory material factors
- Trump administration policies affecting the Court's jurisdiction or legitimacy could influence Roberts' calculations about staying versus leaving
- Media reporting on Roberts' behind-the-scenes views on Court dynamics or institutional concerns would provide evidence of his decision-making

Contracts:
- Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?: Samuel Alito — 58¢ Kalshi $406 (weight 100%)
- Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?: Sonia Sotomayor — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?: Clarence Thomas — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?: John Roberts — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scotusresign
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20John%20Roberts%20resign%20during%20Trump's%20term
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev