8% — Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:49 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that U.S. Senator Mike Lee from Utah becomes the next Supreme Court Justice. Currently valued at 7%, this reflects a relatively low position among other judicial candidates being tracked. The level appears influenced by two primary factors: whether a vacancy occurs on the Court and, if one does, whether President Trump nominates Lee as his choice. Lee has strong conservative credentials and prior judicial experience, but the market shows higher confidence in other potential nominees like John Sauer and James Ho. The resolution of this contract depends on whether an actual Supreme Court vacancy materializes and the nomination decisions made in response. Major shifts in this probability would likely occur following an announced retirement or death of a sitting Justice, combined with signals about Trump's nomination preferences. Key factors: - Current Supreme Court composition has nine sitting justices with no announced retirements as of May 2026, making nomination timing highly uncertain - Lee's judicial background and conservative track record provide a plausible nomination path, but market participants assign higher probabilities to competing candidates John Sauer (5¢) and James Ho (12¢) - Trump's explicit nomination statements or public signals about intended nominees would significantly move probabilities for specific candidates - An actual Supreme Court vacancy announcement would likely shift total probability mass among all candidates rather than increase Lee's relative standing - Market volume remains low across judicial nomination contracts ($621 for the top contract), suggesting limited information certainty and potential for repricing based on new political developments Contracts: - Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Aileen Cannon — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Andrew Oldham — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Amul Thapar — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: James Ho — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: D. John Sauer — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Kenneth Lee — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Mike Lee — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Neomi Rao — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.966Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scourt Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mike%20Lee%20become%20the%20next%20Justice%20on%20the%20Supreme%20Court Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev