93% — Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs
Leader: Above 2.2 million TEUs at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures whether South Carolina's seaports will handle more than 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containerized cargo during 2026. The 26% probability reflects skepticism that the state will reach this threshold. Port throughput depends primarily on regional import-export demand, shipping line routing decisions, and competitive pressure from neighboring ports like Savannah. The probability spread across contracts (93% for 2.2M TEUs down to 26% for 2.5M TEUs) suggests consensus that South Carolina will likely exceed 2.2 million but faces uncertainty reaching higher volumes. Year-end 2026 port statistics, typically published in Q1 2027, will definitively resolve the outcome. Current shipping patterns, terminal capacity utilization, and any announced infrastructure expansions will materially influence whether volumes trending toward or above 2.5 million materialize.

Key factors:
- South Carolina ports handled approximately 2.1-2.2 million TEUs in recent years; reaching 2.5M represents 12-19% growth over baseline
- Port of Charleston competes directly with Port of Savannah and other Southeast terminals for market share; routing decisions by major carriers affect throughput allocation
- Terminal capacity constraints and labor availability at Charleston limit near-term volume growth independent of demand
- Year-to-date 2026 volume data through August will indicate trajectory, with final annual figures published in early 2027
- Announced or funded port expansion projects (berths, cranes, rail access) affect ability to handle incremental volume above current operational baselines

Contracts:
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.2 million TEUs?: Above 2.2 million TEUs — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.3 million TEUs?: Above 2.3 million TEUs — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.4 million TEUs?: Above 2.4 million TEUs — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs?: Above 2.5 million TEUs — 18¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%)
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.6 million TEUs?: Above 2.6 million TEUs — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 78%)
- Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.7 million TEUs?: Above 2.7 million TEUs — 4¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.212Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scportteu
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20South%20Carolina%20total%20container%20volume%20for%202026%20be%20above%202.5%20million%20TEUs
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev