16% — Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026
Kalshi 16% · 6 contracts · $79 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:03 UTC

Contracts:
- Above 0 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 0 — 32¢ Kalshi $79 (weight 100%)
- Above 1 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 1 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 10 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 2 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 2 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 3 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 3 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 5 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026: Above 5 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.048Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/screwwormcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Above%2010%20New%20World%20screwworm%20infestation%20cases%20in%20the%20United%20States%20during%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev