51% — Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
Kalshi 51% · 2 contracts · $781 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 22:18:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Rom Reddy will finish in the top two candidates in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial primary and advance to a runoff. The 64% probability sits between clear frontrunners Alan Wilson (85%) and Pamela Evette (88%), suggesting Reddy is viewed as a competitive but not dominant candidate. Primary performance typically depends on candidate visibility, campaign funding, endorsements, and voter alignment within the party. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this market, determining the actual top two finishers. Movement in this probability would likely reflect polling data shifts, campaign announcements, or changes in candidate viability that alter perceptions of Reddy's standing relative to other candidates in the field.

Key factors:
- Reddy's current polling position relative to other major candidates, particularly against Wilson and Evette who show higher market probabilities
- Campaign funding and organizational capacity to reach voters across South Carolina's primary electorate
- Endorsements from state party leaders, elected officials, or interest groups that could consolidate support
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic participation in the primary election itself
- Changes in field dynamics if other candidates withdraw or consolidate support before the primary vote

Contracts:
- Will Pamela Evette qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary?: Pamela Evette — 97¢ Kalshi $564 (weight 72%)
- Will Ralph Norman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary?: Ralph Norman — 4¢ Kalshi $218 (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-10T02:20:07.023Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scrgovadvance
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rom%20Reddy%20qualify%20for%20the%20runoff%20in%20the%202026%20South%20Carolina%20Republican%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev