60% — Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary Leader: Russell Fry at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 6 contracts · $124K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 02:48:43 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Pamela Evette is currently priced as the frontrunner in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, with market participants assigning her a 46% probability of winning. This reflects traders' current assessment of her relative strength against other GOP candidates including Mark Lynch (7%), Russell Fry (15%), Ralph Norman (12%), and Nancy Mace (3%). The primary outcome will be determined when South Carolina Republicans vote, with the winner facing the Democratic nominee in the general election. Key drivers of Evette's current position include her political profile and name recognition, though the substantial gap between her 46% price and the runner-up at 18% suggests meaningful uncertainty about final primary performance. The election date and campaign developments over coming months will test whether Evette maintains her current market advantage or whether consolidation around alternative candidates reshapes the race. Key factors: - Pamela Evette holds 46% implied probability versus 54% for all other candidates combined, indicating a competitive field despite her current market leadership - Mark Lynch at 7% and Russell Fry at 15% represent the nearest alternatives, with their combined share suggesting the non-Evette vote is fragmented across multiple candidates - Nancy Mace's 3% price despite statewide profile indicates low market confidence in her primary viability in this particular race - Twenty-four-hour trading volume concentration in Evette and Lynch contracts ($10,772 and $11,926 respectively) shows active disagreement on the frontrunner among traders - The special primary timing and field composition remain subject to candidate entry/exit decisions and endorsement announcements that could rapidly shift relative positioning Contracts: - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Russell Fry — 60¢ Kalshi $35K (weight 28%) - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Ralph Norman — 18¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 13%) - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Pamela Evette — 8¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 16%) - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Henry McMaster — 6¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 9%) - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Darline Graham Nordone — 5¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 25%) - Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Mark Lynch — 3¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T02:20:50.254Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scrsens Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20South%20Carolina%20Republican%20Senate%20special%20primary Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev