34% — Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary
Leader: Graham, Norman, Fry at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 6 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market belief that Graham, Norman, and Fry will finish in that exact order in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary first round. The market currently assigns 50% confidence to this specific ordering, with the alternative three-candidate arrangement (Graham, Fry, Norman) second at 28%. The primary result depends on candidate performance relative to voter expectations—recent polling, campaign spending patterns, and endorsement momentum would shift these odds. The first-round outcome will be determined when voting occurs, likely in the coming months, and represents one of four possible top-three finishing orders that markets have priced.

Key factors:
- Graham's status as incumbent likely anchors him as first, making the ordering primarily dependent on whether Norman or Fry finishes second
- Current trading volume concentrates on Graham-Fry-Norman (28¢) and Graham-Norman-Fry (51¢), suggesting market uncertainty centers on the relative standing of these two challengers
- Limited volume on extreme outcomes (Fry-Norman-Graham at 3¢) indicates low perceived probability of Graham finishing outside top position
- The 50% price for the leader reflects near-parity with all alternative outcomes combined, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than dominant consensus
- Publicly available polling data from South Carolina Republican voters would be the primary external signal moving these probabilities before the election date

Contracts:
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Graham, Norman, Fry — 34¢ Kalshi $329 (weight 5%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Graham, Fry, Norman — 24¢ Kalshi $146 (weight 2%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Norman, Graham, Fry — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 29%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Norman, Fry, Graham — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Fry, Graham, Norman — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 32%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Fry, Norman, Graham — 7¢ Kalshi $594 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.855Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/scrsens1rexact
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20exact%20finishing%20order%20be%20in%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%202026%20South%20Carolina%20Republican%20Senate%20special%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev