73% — Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 165 bu/acre
Leader: Above 145 bu/acre at 73% · Kalshi 73% · 7 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 21% chance that South Dakota's 2026 corn yield will exceed 165 bushels per acre, reflecting skepticism about achieving above-average yields. This outcome depends primarily on growing conditions during the critical summer months and whether the state avoids significant weather disruptions. South Dakota's five-year average yield stands around 160 bu/acre, so 165 bu/acre represents a modest step above trend. The main downside risks include drought, excessive rainfall, or pest pressure during July–August, while favorable conditions and effective crop management could push yields higher. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its final yield estimate in early December 2026, which will definitively settle this outcome. Until then, sentiment reflects widespread caution about yield prospects relative to historical performance.

Key factors:
- South Dakota's historical five-year corn yield average is approximately 160 bu/acre; exceeding 165 bu/acre represents a 3% gain above recent trend
- Summer 2026 precipitation and temperature patterns during July–August pollination and grain-fill stages are the primary drivers of final yield; drought or heat stress significantly reduces probability of meeting 165 bu/acre threshold
- The market prices much higher thresholds (170+ bu/acre) at only 11% or lower, indicating low confidence in exceptional yields; only 5–7% probability for 175+ bu/acre outcomes
- USDA will publish official yield data in early December 2026, at which point prediction markets will resolve based on South Dakota's reported corn for grain yield per harvested acre
- Current low volume and pricing suggest limited market participation, which may underweight emerging weather forecasts or late-season crop condition reports

Contracts:
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 145 bu/acre?: Above 145 bu/acre — 73¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 50%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 150 bu/acre?: Above 150 bu/acre — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 155 bu/acre?: Above 155 bu/acre — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 160 bu/acre?: Above 160 bu/acre — 16¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 3%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 170 bu/acre?: Above 170 bu/acre — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 32%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 165 bu/acre?: Above 165 bu/acre — 6¢ Kalshi $304 (weight 6%)
- Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 180 bu/acre?: Above 180 bu/acre — 3¢ Kalshi $402 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:52.054Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "73% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sdcornyield
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20South%20Dakota's%20corn%20for%20grain%20yield%20per%20harvested%20acre%20for%202026%20be%20above%20165%20bu%2Facre
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev