19% — Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%
Leader: Larry Rhoden, ≥12% at 19% · Kalshi 19% · 6 contracts · $429 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Larry Rhoden will win South Dakota's 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by a margin between 6% and 9%. The 20% probability reflects markets pricing this outcome as unlikely relative to other margin scenarios. The current pricing structure suggests that traders see either a larger victory margin (≥12%) or a much closer race (0-3%) as more probable outcomes for Rhoden, with Toby Doeden's larger victory margins also receiving elevated pricing. The key uncertainty centers on whether Rhoden maintains his position or Doeden gains ground heading into the runoff vote. Polling data released closer to the election date will be the primary driver of probability shifts, as it would either confirm the expected margin range or signal movement toward the tighter or wider outcomes currently favored by markets.

Key factors:
- Larry Rhoden trades at 3¢ (3% implied) for the 6-9% margin band, the lowest-priced outcome among contracts, suggesting markets view this specific range as relatively unlikely
- Toby Doeden's ≥12% outcome prices at 20¢, tied with the headline probability and indicating substantial market conviction toward a decisive Doeden victory
- The 0-3% margin contracts for both candidates (10¢ for Doeden, 9¢ for Rhoden) suggest markets assign meaningful probability to a very tight race, competing with the larger-margin scenarios
- Recent polling or endorsement shifts would directly alter expectations about final margin ranges and reweight the probability distribution across all outcome buckets
- No recent 24-hour trading volume on several contracts indicates thin liquidity in this specific market, potentially reflecting limited trader interest or uncertainty about the runoff occurring

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?: Larry Rhoden, ≥12% — 19¢ Kalshi $390 (weight 91%)
- Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?: Toby Doeden, ≥12% — 12¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 9%)
- Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Toby Doeden, 0-3% — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Larry Rhoden, 0-3% — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Toby Doeden, 3-6% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Larry Rhoden, 6-9% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.141Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sdrgovrunoffmov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Larry%20Rhoden%20in%20the%202026%20South%20Dakota%20Republican%20gubernatorial%20runoff%20be%20between%206%25%20and%209%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev