97% — Will Sea Ltd report above 60 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 62 million at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 04:10:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is assessing whether Sea Ltd's Garena platform will report above 62 million quarterly paying users in Q2 2026, with an estimated 96% likelihood. The high probability reflects market confidence in Garena's user base trajectory based on historical growth patterns and recent performance data. The main drivers are Garena's track record of consistent user growth across its gaming portfolio and regional market expansion, weighed against potential headwinds like competitive pressure from other platforms and macroeconomic factors affecting user spending. Resolution depends on Sea Ltd's official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in August 2026, which will disclose the exact paying user count. The probability structure across multiple thresholds (60M, 62M, 64M, 66M, 69M) suggests market participants see a high floor around 62M but decreasing confidence at higher tiers, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude of growth beyond base expectations.

Key factors:
- Sea Ltd's historical quarterly paying user growth rate and trend trajectory from prior periods
- Competitive dynamics in mobile gaming and live-streaming across Southeast Asia and emerging markets where Garena operates
- The earnings release date and exact paying user count disclosure in Sea Ltd's Q2 2026 financial statements
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on gaming and virtual goods in key regions during Q1-Q2 2026
- The gap between the 62M (96%) and 69M (70%) thresholds indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth accelerates beyond historical norms

Contracts:
- Will Sea Ltd report above 62 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 62 million — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 60 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 60 million — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 64 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 64 million — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 66 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 66 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 68 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 68 million — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report Above 69 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 69 million — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 70 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 70 million — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Sea Ltd report above 72 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026?: Above 72 million — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.357Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/se
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sea%20Ltd%20report%20above%2060%20million%20garena%20quarterly%20paying%20users%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev