48% — Will the Secretary of State visit Poland before 2027
Leader: Mexico at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 9 contracts · $53 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. Secretary of State will visit Poland at some point before 2027. The 67% probability is the highest among several potential international visits being tracked, suggesting traders view a Poland visit as more likely than trips to China (the current leader in this contract set), Cuba, or other destinations. The probability is likely influenced by Poland's strategic importance to U.S. foreign policy, ongoing regional geopolitical dynamics, and the typical diplomatic schedule of State Department leadership. Shifts in this probability would depend on scheduled state visits, diplomatic incidents, or changes in U.S. priorities toward Central Europe. The resolution will depend on official State Department travel records and whether any visit occurs before January 1, 2027.

Key factors:
- Poland's status as a NATO ally and key partner in European security strategy affects likelihood of diplomatic visits
- The typical frequency and geographic distribution of Secretary of State visits across comparable allied nations
- Any major geopolitical events or diplomatic initiatives in Central Europe that might accelerate or delay official visits
- The current Secretary of State's established travel schedule and known diplomatic priorities through 2026
- Contractual terms and definition of what constitutes an official "visit" according to VISITAREA rules

Contracts:
- Will the Secretary of State visit Mexico before 2027?: Mexico — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Qatar before 2027?: Qatar — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Switzerland before 2027?: Switzerland — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Poland before 2027?: Poland — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Cuba before 2027?: Cuba — 26¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 4%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Ukraine before 2027?: Ukraine — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Oman before 2027?: Oman — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Secretary of State visit Venezuela before 2027?: Venezuela — 14¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 96%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.619Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/secstatevisit
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Secretary%20of%20State%20visit%20Poland%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev