97% — Sejong Mayoral Election Winner
Leader: Cho Sangho at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 2 contracts · $412 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:45:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing in a 93% probability that Cho Sangho will win the Sejong mayoral election, reflecting strong confidence in his candidacy relative to the leading alternative, Choi Min-ho. This probability could shift based on campaign developments, public polling releases, or voter sentiment changes in the coming months before the election. The main factors supporting Cho's position appear to be either name recognition, prior electoral performance, endorsements, or demonstrated organizational strength, while downside risks would materialize if a major scandal emerged, polling trends reversed significantly, or a strong third-party challenger gained traction. The election date and any scheduled debates or official voting events will likely serve as key resolution points that could shift market confidence. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited recent position changes and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep institutional conviction.

Key factors:
- Cho Sangho maintains a 93-to-10 probability ratio over the runner-up, indicating market consensus rather than genuine uncertainty between two viable candidates
- Trading volume on both contracts is extremely low (combined ~$8 in 24h), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially uninformed or stale pricing
- The 10% assigned to Choi Min-ho represents non-trivial residual probability, indicating markets acknowledge a realistic upset path
- No public polling data, scandal reports, or recent campaign events are reflected in the current summary, limiting ability to assess whether pricing reflects current ground conditions
- A scheduled election date or pre-election event (debates, primary results, or major endorsements) would serve as the primary catalyst for price adjustment

Contracts:
- Sejong Mayoral Election Winner: Cho Sangho — 97¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- Sejong Mayoral Election Winner: Choi Min-ho — 3¢ Polymarket $411 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.560Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sejong-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Sejong%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev