97% — Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...
Leader: June 13 at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by June 30, 2026—giving roughly a 2 in 3 chance lawmakers will approve a major spending or tax measure through the fast-track process that requires only a simple majority. Reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster threshold, making them a key tool for passing partisan legislation. The 69% probability suggests traders view passage as more likely than not, though still uncertain. Key drivers include current Senate composition, the status of budget negotiations, and whether party leadership has secured sufficient votes. The immediate catalyst is whether Democrats or Republicans can maintain internal unity on a bill framework, with June 30 marking the formal deadline for this specific resolution window.

Key factors:
- Budget resolution adoption status: A budget resolution must pass first to enable reconciliation instructions, which would need to occur early June to meet the June 30 deadline
- Senate floor schedule: Leadership must allocate limited floor time for debate and voting, competing against other legislative priorities in the final weeks of the session
- Coalition stability: Passage requires holding a simple majority (51 votes with current composition), meaning zero or near-zero defections depending on party control
- Substantive policy agreement: Senators must reach consensus on fiscal priorities (spending levels, tax provisions, etc.) before floor consideration becomes feasible
- External pressure events: Economic data, fiscal crises, or political developments between June 1-30 could shift urgency and willingness to spend floor time on reconciliation

Contracts:
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?: June 13 — 97¢ Polymarket $963 (weight 95%)
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?: June 30 — 97¢ Polymarket $47 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senate-pass-reconciliation-bill
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Senate%20pass%20a%20reconciliation%20bill%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev