91% — Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida
Kalshi 91% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:32 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that Angie Nixon becomes the Democratic Party's official Senate nominee for Florida's 2026 election. At 33%, the market suggests she is considered a serious contender but faces stronger competition, particularly from Jared Moskowitz, whose contract trades significantly lower at 3 cents. The probability reflects uncertainty about which candidate will accumulate sufficient delegate support or win primary contests. Factors influencing this level include Nixon's name recognition within Democratic circles, her fundraising capacity compared to rivals, and endorsements from party leadership. The primary election date and any scheduled candidate debates or endorsement announcements would likely move this probability meaningfully. Contract volume remains modest across all three candidates, indicating limited trading activity and potential for significant repricing as the nomination process advances and more information emerges about candidate viability and voter preferences.

Key factors:
- Nixon's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared Democratic candidates
- Endorsements from Florida Democratic Party officials, unions, and national party figures
- Vote share in any early primary elections or straw polls held before the official nomination vote
- Moskowitz's contract pricing at 3 cents suggests market assigns him substantially higher nomination odds despite lower trading volume
- The date of the Florida Democratic primary election and formal nomination procedures that will determine which candidate receives the nomination

Contracts:
- Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida?: Alexander Vindman — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T08:20:50.382Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senatefld
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Angie%20Nixon%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20the%20Senate%20in%20Florida
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev