39% — Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas
Kalshi 39% · 2 contracts · $11 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:38 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Patrick Schmidt wins the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kansas. At 6%, markets currently view Schmidt as an unlikely nominee choice relative to other potential Democratic candidates. The low probability reflects Kansas's strong Republican lean—the state has voted Republican in recent presidential elections and holds a Republican Senate seat—which typically makes Democratic nominations less competitive at the statewide level. Key factors affecting this probability include Schmidt's current political standing and name recognition in Kansas, the strength of competing Democratic candidates for the nomination, and whether any major shifts in the state's political dynamics occur. The 2026 Senate election timeline will be the critical catalyst for resolution, with the primary election serving as the definitive test of whether Schmidt can secure the Democratic nomination.

Key factors:
- Kansas's Republican lean in recent election cycles, making any Democratic statewide nominee a long-shot in the general election
- The competitiveness of the Democratic primary race and whether other candidates with higher name recognition or establishment support enter the race
- Schmidt's baseline political experience, fundraising capacity, and organizational strength relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- Timing of the Democratic primary election and any endorsements or institutional support that could shift momentum
- Recent voting trends in Kansas Democratic primaries and whether turnout or demographic shifts create new opportunities

Contracts:
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?: Patrick Schmidt — 4¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas?: Adam Hamilton — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.025Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senateksd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Patrick%20Schmidt%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20the%20Senate%20in%20Kansas
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev