22% — Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Kalshi 22% · 5 contracts · $13 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Karishma Manzur will secure the Democratic Party's Senate nomination in New Hampshire's 2026 general election. At 22%, this suggests market participants view her as a credible but not favored candidate in the state's Democratic primary. The probability is primarily driven by assessments of her name recognition, organizational support, and fundraising capacity relative to other potential Democratic candidates in New Hampshire. The key catalyst that will resolve much of this uncertainty is the official filing deadline for primary candidates and early primary performance, which will clarify voter preference and establishment backing. Changes to this probability would likely follow major endorsement announcements, significant fundraising reports, or shifts in perceived candidate viability based on polling data closer to the primary election.

Key factors:
- Manzur's campaign infrastructure and fundraising totals relative to competing Democratic primary candidates in New Hampshire
- Public endorsements from state Democratic officials, labor unions, and other influential party organizations
- Polling data showing her name recognition and support levels among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
- Entry or withdrawal of other significant Democratic candidates that would directly affect the competitive field
- Media coverage and earned attention indicating momentum or decline in her candidacy ahead of the primary vote

Contracts:
- Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Karishma Manzur — 7¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 100%)
- Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Annie Kuster — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Chris Pappas — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Maggie Goodlander — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Stefany Shaheen — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.331Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senatenhd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Karishma%20Manzur%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20the%20Senate%20in%20New%20Hampshire
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev