13% — Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania
Kalshi 13% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 04:33:05 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Conor Lamb will win the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's 2026 Senate seat. At 15%, markets view him as a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner. The assessment likely reflects the competitive nature of Pennsylvania Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically emerge with substantial support. Key factors pushing this probability would include Lamb's performance in early polling, his fundraising relative to other candidates, and whether any higher-profile Democrats enter the race. The resolution of this market depends on the Democratic primary election results, which will occur during Pennsylvania's primary voting period in spring 2026. Upcoming candidate announcements and early primary polls over the next several months will significantly clarify whether Lamb can consolidate Democratic primary support.

Key factors:
- Lamb's current position in Pennsylvania Democratic primary polling compared to other declared or potential candidates as of May 2026
- Total fundraising by Lamb versus competing Democratic primary candidates through the pre-primary period
- Whether high-profile Pennsylvania Democrats (senators, governors, or other statewide officials) enter or decline to enter the Democratic primary
- Lamb's performance in head-to-head matchup polling against Republican general election opponents, which influences primary donor and voter enthusiasm
- Turnout and voting patterns in the 2026 Pennsylvania Democratic primary relative to historical precedent

Contracts:
- Will Brendan Boyle be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Brendan Boyle — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Chris Deluzio be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Chris Deluzio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Conor Lamb — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will John Fetterman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: John Fetterman — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Summer Lee — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?: Susan Wild — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:49.680Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senatepad
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Conor%20Lamb%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20the%20Senate%20in%20Pennsylvania
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev