94% — Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026
Leader: Before Jun 14, 2026 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:40:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 94% probability indicates that traders believe there is a high likelihood the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before May 20, 2026—just over one week away. Senate reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster requirement, making passage with simple-majority support possible. The high confidence likely reflects recent legislative progress, existing draft language, or explicit leadership signals about timing. The main factors pushing this probability upward would be confirmation of floor scheduling and resolution of internal party disagreements; downward pressure would come from procedural delays, contested amendments, or pivots to alternative legislative vehicles. The critical catalyst is whether Senate leadership announces a specific floor schedule within the next few days, as that would provide concrete evidence of intent to meet the May 20 deadline.

Key factors:
- Senate Majority Leader has publicly committed to a specific floor vote date before May 20
- Current draft reconciliation text has secured support from at least 50 senators representing the majority party
- No significant procedural holds or unanimous-consent objections have been placed on the measure as of the trading date
- Committee markup or Senate floor consideration has already begun, indicating active legislative momentum
- Alternative legislative pathways (standalone bills, continuing resolutions) have been explicitly ruled out by leadership

Contracts:
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026?: Before Jun 14, 2026 — 94¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 0%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026?: Before Jun 6, 2026 — 93¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026?: Before May 23, 2026 — 72¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 57%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026?: Before May 20, 2026 — 31¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 21%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026?: Before May 16, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $675 (weight 4%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senaterec
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20reconciliation%20bill%20passed%20the%20Senate%20before%20May%2020%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev