94% — Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026
Leader: Before Jun 14, 2026 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026?: Before Jun 14, 2026 — 94¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 0%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026?: Before Jun 6, 2026 — 93¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026?: Before May 23, 2026 — 72¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 57%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026?: Before May 20, 2026 — 31¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 21%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026?: Before May 16, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $675 (weight 4%)

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senaterec
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20reconciliation%20bill%20passed%20the%20Senate%20before%20May%2020%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev