24% — Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 5 contracts · $60 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:35:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 24% probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before January 1, 2027, suggesting traders view passage as unlikely but plausible within the next six months. Reconciliation bills are rare legislative vehicles that require only 51 Senate votes rather than 60, making them strategically important for major legislation but difficult to construct due to strict budget rules and party divisions. The timing structure—with progressively lower prices for earlier deadlines (11% by September, 14% by October)—suggests traders expect delays if passage occurs at all. The primary drivers are current Senate composition, whether a reconciliation framework gains bipartisan support, and the procedural timeline required for markup and floor votes. The biggest near-term catalyst is the August recess, which would significantly compress the timeline for a September 1 resolution.

Key factors:
- Current Senate vote count and leadership commitment: 51 votes needed vs. 60-vote threshold for standard bills; recent budget resolution status indicates priority level
- Reconciliation scope and pay-for mechanisms: broader spending bills face higher failure risk due to PAYGO constraints and deficit concerns
- Legislative calendar constraints: Senate workdays available between now and January 1, 2027, with August recess reducing September deadline feasibility
- Party cohesion on spending priorities: defections within either party would delay or block passage
- External fiscal events: Congressional Budget Office scores and economic data that could shift priorities away from reconciliation in this period

Contracts:
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 19¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 100%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.861Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senaterec-26jun
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20reconciliation%20bill%20passed%20the%20Senate%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev