50% — Senegal vs. Iraq
Leader: Senegal at 50% · Polymarket 50% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that Senegal is favored over Iraq in a direct matchup, with a 59% implied probability versus 33% for Iraq and 8% for other outcomes. The pricing reflects Senegal's higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record, while Iraq's lower valuation suggests concerns about consistency at this competitive level. Market depth remains thin across related contracts, with the France vs. Senegal contract showing the most trading activity ($169 in 24-hour volume), indicating broader uncertainty about this tournament structure. The most significant driver of repricing would be team roster announcements, recent injury updates, or head-to-head performance data closer to the match date. Until then, the 26-percentage-point spread between Senegal and Iraq reflects a clear but not overwhelming market consensus.

Key factors:
- Senegal's FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance history versus Iraq's comparative record
- Market volume concentration in France vs. Senegal contract ($169 24h vol) versus near-zero volume in the direct Senegal vs. Iraq contract
- Thin liquidity across all related contracts suggests limited conviction among sophisticated traders
- Roster availability and injury status for both teams, which typically influences odds in the final weeks before competition
- Tournament format details and seeding that may affect match scheduling or competitive context

Contracts:
- Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq) — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq — 34¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/senegal-vs-iraq
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Senegal%20vs.%20Iraq
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev